Jones for sure, and I don't think it will even be close. Jones is bigger, faster & has beaten guys much better at everything Chael is good at. I'd be shocked if it went to a decision. I'll take Jones by TKO as well but I'll say the 2nd round (just to be different!).
Sonnen's biggest asset is his mouth but, unfortunately for him, that doesn't help him once he actually has to fight. His UFC record is 6 wins & 5 losses... but this is his 3rd title shot. Why? Because he sells pay per views. Most guys with that kind of record are in danger of being cut, not being selected as a coach on TUF & headlining pay per views.